Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

6 minutes ago, notsonice said:

hopefully a reporting error

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed

[notsonice + 1,255]

ouch they need to go back to day one and redo all the stats, hard for anyone to tell what is really going on now. they went from reporting some bad apples to all (maybe if they are on the game now) bad apples

[entertenter + 24]

I was already hoping that new cases reported is not increasing anymore, and soon reported deaths will start to decline too. But it seems to be just underreported cases for few days. The game is on. 

I wouldn't worry so much about China, they can introduce drastic measures without a problem. But rather about other countries in Europe and US, how they will stop virus spreading without closing down cities.

[cbrasher1 + 272]

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, entertenter said:

I was already hoping that new cases reported is not increasing anymore, and soon reported deaths will start to decline too. But it seems to be just underreported cases for few days. The game is on. 

I wouldn't worry so much about China, they can introduce drastic measures without a problem. But rather about other countries in Europe and US, how they will stop virus spreading without closing down cities.

 

The biggest threat seems to be to ethnic Chinese men who are older and who smoke.  Darwin Award time, apparently.  See below for stats.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-13/why-most-coronavirus-deaths-have-been-chinese-men

The latest scientific study out of China shows that the approximately 3% of the people who get Coronavirus die from it (i.e. the "mortality rate").

Most of the deaths are in people over 60 years old.

But that is not the only determinant.  For example, the mortality rate is apparently higher among men than woman.   And see this.

And even though the hospitals in Wuhan - where the virus started - are overwhelmed and so unable to provide intensive levels of care, it is still a bit surprising that virtually every single death from Coronavirus has been in China.

One Chinese study wondered whether Asian people are more susceptible genetically to Coronavirus and SARS:

We also noticed that the only Asian donor (male) has a much higher ACE2-expressing cell ratio than white and African American donors (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells). This might explain the observation that the new Coronavirus pandemic and previous SARS-Cov pandemic are concentrated in the Asian area.

The study has no statistical significance, given that the sample size included only a handful of people with a single Asian victim, and such a small sample size is meaningless.

But the reference to ACE2 may be on the right track. Specifically, most scientists agree that both the Wuhan Coronavirus and the SARS virus which hit China in 2002-2003 attack the human body through the ACE2 receptor (short for "Angiotensin-converting enzyme-2", which is an enzyme which plays a role in constriction of the lungs).

Here's where it gets interesting ...

A professor at the University of South Carolina found that smokers have significantly higher levels of ACE2 than non-smokers ... but that no difference was found based on age, gender or racial group: 

In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

Could this could help to explain why Chinese men are more susceptible to Coronavirus than other people?

Actually, it might...

The Chinese smoke a lot.  BBC reported in 2015:

China is the world's biggest consumer of cigarettes - one in three cigarettes smoked globally is in China - as well as the world's biggest tobacco producer.

More than 300 million people - about a quarter of the population - smoke, with the average smoker consuming 22 cigarettes a day.

And it turns out that Chinese men smoke a lot more than Chinese women.  For example, Gallup reported in 2005:

Smoking in China is overwhelmingly a male habit. At least two-thirds of all Chinese men (68%) smoke at least occasionally, and roughly half (49%) are regular smokers. In contrast, only 6% of women smoke regularly (3%) or occasionally (3%).

Wikipedia writes:

China ... accounted for 51.4% of the world's male smokers in 2015.

BBC notes:

A new study has warned that a third of all men currently under the age of 20 in China will eventually die prematurely [from lung cancer and other diseases other than Coronavirus] if they do not give up smoking.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The biggest threat seems to be to ethnic Chinese men who are older and who smoke.  Darwin Award time, apparently.  See below for stats.

Darn!  Just when the conspiracy theories start to get exciting we discover that smoking is bad for your health.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

Darn!  Just when the conspiracy theories start to get exciting we discover that smoking is bad for your health.

Darwin Awards are generally given to those who hurt themselves.

The coronavirus apparently doesn't kill by itself, it apparently kills those who get infected with the virus and already have chronically unhealthy, compromised respiratory systems (from long term smoking).  Which would seemingly explain the lack of young people and babies dying from infection.

Obviously, I could be wrong.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The coronavirus apparently doesn't kill by itself, it apparently kills those who get infected with the virus and already have chronically unhealthy, compromised respiratory systems (from long term smoking).  Which would seemingly explain the lack of young people and babies dying from infection.

Obviously, I could be wrong.

No, I think you're right. The data certainly is stacking up that way. Smoking damages alveolar cell membranes. Makes sense that smokers would get hit hardest. 

[Bob D + 562]

On 2/11/2020 at 10:34 AM, Bob D said:

I don't know if this has been posted yet but I found it fascinating how the rates of infection follow the time honored tradition of MAKING SH!T UP as we progress through the Coronavirus life cycle.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/

 

 

Listen to me now.  Believe me Later.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/body-count/

Edited February 13, 2020 by Bob D
added link

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Some

16 hours ago, notsonice said:

ouch they need to go back to day one and redo all the stats, hard for anyone to tell what is really going on now. they went from reporting some bad apples to all (maybe if they are on the game now) bad apples

Much of that missive jump is apparently because they changed their rules on how they diagnose the disease (it is not necessarily a massive jump in infection rates). 

Apparently, before they actually tested for the virus before making the Dx, now they will make the Dx off plain chest x-rays.  Good idea (simple, fast, cheap) but the numbers could include some false positives from other sources of pneumonia. 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

 

A new study has warned that a third of all men currently under the age of 20 in China will eventually die prematurely [from lung cancer and other diseases other than Coronavirus] if they do not give up smoking.

I would say all men under 20 who never quit smoking are going to die prematurely. Virus or no virus.

[BJblue + 12]

That is for sure a fact.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

10 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

The coronavirus apparently doesn't kill by itself, it apparently kills those who get infected with the virus and already have chronically unhealthy, compromised respiratory systems (from long term smoking).  Which would seemingly explain the lack of young people and babies dying from infection.

Obviously, I could be wrong.

Or lung damage from long term fossil fuel or wood burning. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 2/13/2020 at 8:43 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to nonsmoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

That explains it all. So it isn't specific to Han Chinese men, but to heavy smokers, which half of Han Chinese men happen to be. Good news for China.

 

[Boat + 1,324]

Heavy smoking must include the heavy pollution in the large cities or where the power is produced. The big worry about to many men and to many old people might fix itself. 

[frankfurter + 562]

53 minutes ago, Boat said:

Heavy smoking must include the heavy pollution in the large cities or where the power is produced. The big worry about to many men and to many old people might fix itself. 

odd. why are you worried about too many men, or old people for that matter? 

[please note;  "to" and "too" have different meanings]

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 2/13/2020 at 7:33 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Darwin Awards are generally given to those who hurt themselves.

The coronavirus apparently doesn't kill by itself, it apparently kills those who get infected with the virus and already have chronically unhealthy, compromised respiratory systems (from long term smoking).  Which would seemingly explain the lack of young people and babies dying from infection.

Obviously, I could be wrong.

Oddly enough, the one and only man I've ever met who lived in Wuhan I met while he was outside smoking cigarettes. Clearly that meant nothing to me, since most Chinese men I've met are smokers. Interestingly, after they live here long enough they tend to quit, because Americans are generally down on smoking (and it's considerably more expensive here). As I'd mentioned before, that man is dead of COVID19.

[Otis11 + 551]

So, a bit of a long shot to ponder here...

I live in Texas, but travel regularly through international and major airports and deal constantly with people who travel through international/major airports in the US (and a reasonable amount do travel internationally... some to China). I'm normally an extremely healthy individual (usually get sick every 3 years or so... and never bad. Things that knock other people out for a week I'm good after resting a day - yes, very blessed, but that's not the point.)

All that to say. On December 30th I came down with a 'flu' which knocked me on my back for 6 days - one of those days I was so sick I physically could not get out of bed (never been sick for 6 days nor been too weak to get up and take care if myself). I physically couldnt get up to get water. I had pneumonia type symptoms (which took about 3 weeks to clear after the fact), my wife got it 6 days after me, and it literally hit everyone I interacted with the week prior (so highly contagious... fortunately everyone is ok.  Btw, as soon as I realized I was sick, I did stop and work from home to avoid spreading it). We all blamed it on a really bad flu season, but everyone said the same thing - they were out for 6+ days and it was absolutely the worst they've ever been sick. All of this in Texas and I personally hadn't traveled internationally.

One of my cousins checked herself into the hospital and got supportive care for 'the flu' when she's never been sick bad enough to go to the hospital in her life prior to this... again, 6 days sick as a dog, and lingering pneumonia like symptoms. (She's incredibly fit - cross country skier and snowshoer living at altitude)

Because of the lack of personal connection to China, it never occurred to me - but today my father suggested that it was already here in the US and not being reported (hence why the CDC refuses to test anyone who doesn't have a direct link to China - and they dont want to report it because they don't want to spread panic). On top of that he suggested the fatality rate was lower here due to fewer smokers, better air quality, better average nutrition, and overall more availible medical facilities.

The only reason its staying under wraps is because the fatality rate is low enough they're able to blame it on 'the worst flu in recent history', and both sides have a vested interest in keeping it quiet (Dems don't want to give Trump amo against China in the public eye and Trump wants to keep it out of public eye to prevent stock impacts until it burns itself out...)

So, with that, my father is suggesting it's already here in the US and that I (as well as some people we know) have already had it.

Thoughts? Is he completely crazy? Does this hold water? 

To be honest, I'm torn on the idea... my gut says no way, (this is so much worse in China,  how is it no one here connected to me died if that's the case???) but he makes a convincing arguement on lining up the symptoms and timelines, the rapid spread, as well as the lack of any news on internstional spread of what looks to be a seriously contagious disease...

If anyone is willing to chime in on complete conjecture... 

(I'd also like to point out that I'm questioning the honesty and transparency of the US government, and both US and international news agencies in this instance... Not that this is atypical of me, just wanted to point this out to the form members who get on me for doubting official narratives from other countries/agencies. I'm an equal opportunity skeptic)

[frankfurter + 562]

Fact: The transPacific flights move thousands of people to and fro daily.  Less clear is when the cov19 erupted, when infected people left the epicentre, how many they infected in turn, and how many infected people flew to the USA and elsewhere.

If we consider Mr Kirkman's conjectures and we couple those with a conjecture some of the thousands of passengers may have been infected, then could we say the USA is likely to have many hundreds of suspected cases?  If you accept the conjecture, then the answer would be yes. 

 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, Otis11 said:

So, a bit of a long shot to ponder here...

I live in Texas, but travel regularly through international and major airports and deal constantly with people who travel through international/major airports in the US (and a reasonable amount do travel internationally... some to China). I'm normally an extremely healthy individual (usually get sick every 3 years or so... and never bad. Things that knock other people out for a week I'm good after resting a day - yes, very blessed, but that's not the point.)

All that to say. On December 30th I came down with a 'flu' which knocked me on my back for 6 days - one of those days I was so sick I physically could not get out of bed (never been sick for 6 days nor been too weak to get up and take care if myself). I physically couldnt get up to get water. I had pneumonia type symptoms (which took about 3 weeks to clear after the fact), my wife got it 6 days after me, and it literally hit everyone I interacted with the week prior (so highly contagious... fortunately everyone is ok.  Btw, as soon as I realized I was sick, I did stop and work from home to avoid spreading it). We all blamed it on a really bad flu season, but everyone said the same thing - they were out for 6+ days and it was absolutely the worst they've ever been sick. All of this in Texas and I personally hadn't traveled internationally.

One of my cousins checked herself into the hospital and got supportive care for 'the flu' when she's never been sick bad enough to go to the hospital in her life prior to this... again, 6 days sick as a dog, and lingering pneumonia like symptoms. (She's incredibly fit - cross country skier and snowshoer living at altitude)

Because of the lack of personal connection to China, it never occurred to me - but today my father suggested that it was already here in the US and not being reported (hence why the CDC refuses to test anyone who doesn't have a direct link to China - and they dont want to report it because they don't want to spread panic). On top of that he suggested the fatality rate was lower here due to fewer smokers, better air quality, better average nutrition, and overall more availible medical facilities.

The only reason its staying under wraps is because the fatality rate is low enough they're able to blame it on 'the worst flu in recent history', and both sides have a vested interest in keeping it quiet (Dems don't want to give Trump amo against China in the public eye and Trump wants to keep it out of public eye to prevent stock impacts until it burns itself out...)

So, with that, my father is suggesting it's already here in the US and that I (as well as some people we know) have already had it.

Thoughts? Is he completely crazy? Does this hold water? 

To be honest, I'm torn on the idea... my gut says no way, (this is so much worse in China,  how is it no one here connected to me died if that's the case???) but he makes a convincing arguement on lining up the symptoms and timelines, the rapid spread, as well as the lack of any news on internstional spread of what looks to be a seriously contagious disease...

If anyone is willing to chime in on complete conjecture... 

(I'd also like to point out that I'm questioning the honesty and transparency of the US government, and both US and international news agencies in this instance... Not that this is atypical of me, just wanted to point this out to the form members who get on me for doubting official narratives from other countries/agencies. I'm an equal opportunity skeptic)

It is indeed a possibility. Considering the manifestation in the US being something like yours, it may very well be, but the current flu season is indeed a tough one with a high complication and mortality rate.

The disease is not R0 2.6 but something north of 4, highly communicable. It is transmitted on surfaces for over a week, by aerosol, by touch to mouth or eyes, and by asymptomatic carriers And most cases are not that hard, so people don't go to hospitals, and as I commented on the thread before, we don't have a general random sample test to see the prevalence of antibodies or the virus among the general population. The start of the infection could have been as early as November. 

If you notice in the international statistics, the disease is not a killer if you have ready access to quality medical care. 3 of 595 cases outside China were fatal. Reported fatalities outside Hubei are very low, presumably because hospitals are not overwhelmed and - unlike Wuhan - did not place the patients in cross contamination conditions. It is particularly a failure at all levels of the CCP and healthcare officials as well as frontline medical pros who followed administrative directions focused on payments and hospital resources instead of obvious quarantine and treatment protocols. 

[frankfurter + 562]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

It is particularly a failure at all levels of the CCP and healthcare officials as well as frontline medical pros who followed administrative directions focused on payments and hospital resources instead of obvious quarantine and treatment protocols. 

You are on the ground in China, have conducted audits, to support your assertion?  I can say exactly the same about Flint mercury water, and hundreds of other cases.  Maybe we can stop the smear campaigns?

 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

9 hours ago, Otis11 said:

So, a bit of a long shot to ponder here...

I live in Texas, but travel regularly through international and major airports and deal constantly with people who travel through international/major airports in the US (and a reasonable amount do travel internationally... some to China). I'm normally an extremely healthy individual (usually get sick every 3 years or so... and never bad. Things that knock other people out for a week I'm good after resting a day - yes, very blessed, but that's not the point.)

All that to say. On December 30th I came down with a 'flu' which knocked me on my back for 6 days - one of those days I was so sick I physically could not get out of bed (never been sick for 6 days nor been too weak to get up and take care if myself). I physically couldnt get up to get water. I had pneumonia type symptoms (which took about 3 weeks to clear after the fact), my wife got it 6 days after me, and it literally hit everyone I interacted with the week prior (so highly contagious... fortunately everyone is ok.  Btw, as soon as I realized I was sick, I did stop and work from home to avoid spreading it). We all blamed it on a really bad flu season, but everyone said the same thing - they were out for 6+ days and it was absolutely the worst they've ever been sick. All of this in Texas and I personally hadn't traveled internationally.

One of my cousins checked herself into the hospital and got supportive care for 'the flu' when she's never been sick bad enough to go to the hospital in her life prior to this... again, 6 days sick as a dog, and lingering pneumonia like symptoms. (She's incredibly fit - cross country skier and snowshoer living at altitude)

Because of the lack of personal connection to China, it never occurred to me - but today my father suggested that it was already here in the US and not being reported (hence why the CDC refuses to test anyone who doesn't have a direct link to China - and they dont want to report it because they don't want to spread panic). On top of that he suggested the fatality rate was lower here due to fewer smokers, better air quality, better average nutrition, and overall more availible medical facilities.

The only reason its staying under wraps is because the fatality rate is low enough they're able to blame it on 'the worst flu in recent history', and both sides have a vested interest in keeping it quiet (Dems don't want to give Trump amo against China in the public eye and Trump wants to keep it out of public eye to prevent stock impacts until it burns itself out...)

So, with that, my father is suggesting it's already here in the US and that I (as well as some people we know) have already had it.

Thoughts? Is he completely crazy? Does this hold water? 

To be honest, I'm torn on the idea... my gut says no way, (this is so much worse in China,  how is it no one here connected to me died if that's the case???) but he makes a convincing arguement on lining up the symptoms and timelines, the rapid spread, as well as the lack of any news on internstional spread of what looks to be a seriously contagious disease...

If anyone is willing to chime in on complete conjecture... 

(I'd also like to point out that I'm questioning the honesty and transparency of the US government, and both US and international news agencies in this instance... Not that this is atypical of me, just wanted to point this out to the form members who get on me for doubting official narratives from other countries/agencies. I'm an equal opportunity skeptic)

No, no, no. If this thing was here in the states, it'd spread like wildfire and believe me, there'd be an epidemic. Probably not as bad as China because we have fewer smokers. You likely had what I had: Respiratory Syncytial Virus. 

It's very common. And it has two unique properties that wipe you out: it suppresses your innate immune system. And it suppresses your accomodative immune system, which is to say you don't make antibodies against it very well. As a matter of fact, I had posted under another thread that this new virus was beginning to sound like the RSV when it first hit years ago. 

When RSV first hit back in the eighties, I coughed incessantly for three months. I'd stuck my finger with a needle and thought I had what was emerging back then. It especially hits very young children, people who are run down, and the elderly.  

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, frankfurter said:

You are on the ground in China, have conducted audits, to support your assertion?  I can say exactly the same about Flint mercury water, and hundreds of other cases.  Maybe we can stop the smear campaigns?

 

 

I followed the many tweets and videos and witness accounts. I suggest you do the same without the CCP blinders on. As far as I am concerned it was as I described.

The Chinese government and CCP have gone to the point of pressing Youtube and google to de-fund all videos and sources that mention the coronavirus outbreak in China. I would say that there is an outright lie and suppression campaign of unusual scale and ferocity by the CCP. Clear evidence that their "hair is on fire" and they believe that they are on the verge of losing all credibility among the global population and have lost it already among political leaders and government officials everywhere, and are facing sheer rage from the young adults within China. 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

7 hours ago, frankfurter said:

You are on the ground in China, have conducted audits, to support your assertion?  I can say exactly the same about Flint mercury water, and hundreds of other cases.  Maybe we can stop the smear campaigns?

 

Ah yes, I remember in Flint where they chained / welded door shut, leaving thousands to die of fire and/or starvation. 

Oh wait that never happened because the CCP is the most vile regime in the world.

https://twitter.com/freddie1999/status/1226289264129867777

 

Cheers.

[Bob D + 562]

It's getting too real.  Japanese man confirmed as coronavirus patient after returning from 11 day Hawaii vacation.  

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/14/breaking-news/japanese-man-confirmed-as-coronavirus-patient-after-returning-from-hawaii-vacation/

I think the asymptomatic period has been extended from 12-14 days to 20+.  This should frightening the heck out of everyone.