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Classical China Partner trap. ARM is too important for China. I guess it is too late for Tesla as well but its value its value is too bubble IMHO. SpaceX is more important. Tesla went into China with the clear definite outcome in mind that all the Tech involved would be stolen by the CCP. It was worth it in order to garner advantages of scale TESLA could not have otherwise. China footed the whole bill with bank financing. So Tesla essentially sold its current generation technology, which is already obsolete in order to gain scale in its battery and parts. The result has been remarkable in their earnings momentum and thus in their stock price. ARM were idiots who believed the China liberalization hoax and put their control over their technology licensing under CCP controlled people with them as minority stake holders. They had a hold on the small stakeholder that had been its actual partner. They lost that partner to the CCP. I am certain that Nvidia is offering the appropriate price for ARM with its China arm having a value of 0 within 5 years. I would expect that they would end up cutting off ARM China from new designs and there would be no further licensing at all into Chinese customers. UK will likely follow the US into restricting technology availability into China. The UK has made the turn away from China already. It is just a matter of the details of the path that are left for it to decide. It is entirely unclear to me what Germany is up to re-China, and I don't know what the French would do till I understand what Germany is doing. German business is so far "only" 50% committed to leave China. It will be interesting to see how they manage to take any funds out of the country, the only way Chinese have been managing these past 5 years is via exports of China made goods and sell them for whatever cash you can get. What do you do if those are limited by tariffs?

You are including the marginal newly cleared arable land that was added to the total after the exchange programs with the displaced farmers. That new land under cultivation has only 70% of the productivity, and requires substantially more chemical applications. I don't count that in the total because that is only marginal land. The land that was built over was prime agricultural land with deep topsoil. Check the sources for your figures. They sound like the official ones. China has had a real food issue. There is much more pork they need to import. Perhaps they can avoid importing chicken as that is a shorter cycle meat. But that too was damaged from bird flu and their duck flock was reduced during the shutdown when farmers were not allowed to travel to their facilities. Bird flu has been a substantial hit last year. Calculate out the per capita import and compare it to per capita consumption figures. It is a significant gap.

Agree with that forecast Bob, but even 10% is enough to shut down most E&P in oil and gas sector, as is the case right now thanks to Covid. This is why most IOC's are switching their focus to LNG. Exxon is the only one clinging to liquids.

Opening up ANWR (never mind that it never should have existed in the first place) is a subsidy how, precisely? Every time I try to find these supposed handouts from the government for my small oil company, I find Nada. I get to deduct expenses, just like every other business in the country. How, exactly is that a "subsidy"? If I want to bid on government land I get to pay them, up front, enormous sums for the privilege of maybe discovering something of value there. That's a subsidy? Please document these supposed subsidies, and don't just quote another crackpot economist, show the real subsidy. Also let's define the term in the vernacular, not some imaginary definition only leftist economists know.

I would think so, but I don't just read the title to be an expert in anything. I would have been proud that I questioned the professor too much that may make him fail me for a no-standard degree rather than keep parroting whatever he taught without any of his own input. Politology and political science normally for the one who cannot do rational thinking and want an easy political career or media or earn a scholar title to teach the youth. If they are smarter with logic, they would have studied Philosophy and Religion. Its funny for any book worm professor to teach people Marxism who have the experience in theory and application in the real world. These professors simply set their own degree, standard and mark people down who opposite to their believe, kind of a zealot who mark down any opinion about their theory (which can never be proven correct once). They also assume the majorities would be more stupid than them and keep thinking on how to manipulate these and constantly got the surprise. Much easier with STEM careers where you can prove your value to the project or not.

So I guess roughly half of the voters in 2016 were not capable of rational thinking? I suppose you can back up your statement with fact....hold on, I’m talking to a parrot. Never mind... The biggest threat to this, or any election, is voter fraud. A standby ploy for the Democratic party who always opposes voter ID. Have you happened to notice that during the past two weeks or so, Yahoo News has stopped accepting comments to their wildly biased ‘news’ articles? Discerning readers had the nasty habit of checking the responses to the articles to get the opposing views...these were always an order of magnitude or more to the liberal BS. Small wonder they cancelled the comment function.

Communism was started by Lenin in the Third International. Marxism, Communism, Stalinism, Maoism, Ho Chi Minh ... is the compulsory course in my home country universities for generations. Facts about socialism: -Israel, India, and the United Kingdom all adopted socialism as an economic model following World War II. -Socialism is guilty of a fatal conceit: It believes its system can make better decisions for the people than they can for themselves. -Socialism has failed in every country in which it has been tried. Since US the most capitalism country in the world, in theory liberal think it should move to socialism soon. They should try before they buy though.

Nearly all the shut-in unconventional US wells will be back in production in September, according to a report from Rystad Energy. Based on early reports the wells are producing at about the level they were before the shut-in, plus a bit extra after operators open them up. “Nearly all operators said they did not face any issues in bringing volumes back on line as per schedule, as they had already worked on issues such as maintaining reservoir pressure and well integrity even before they began moderating output or shutting in wells,” said Veronika Akulinitseva, vice president, North American Shale and Upstream for Rystad. While there was talk about shut-ins reducing production, the opposite has often been the case. “When operators shut in those wells in April–May, the downhole pressure started building, and when the wells are coming back on line now, operators are seeing short periods of increased oil productivity [and] also marginally lower gas/oil ratios in some cases,” Akulinitseva said. Based on the limited data the gains could be 10–15% for a few days up to a couple weeks. The operator talking about the subject has been EOG, which discussed the added output it calls “flush production” during its second-quarter investor call. “One observation from our production data revealed that almost every well exhibited some level of flush production before returning to its previous decline profile; further evidence that the well sustained no damage from the shut-in period,” said Billy Helms, chief operating officer for EOG. The explanation is that when they turn off production on these single-zone horizontal wells, the bottomhole pressure builds up as gas continues to flow in from the formation. “When we turn them on, those wells will show flush production until that bottom well pressure has gone down to what it was prior to that,” he said. Helms said it has gone as expected, as shown in a slide from an EOG presentation in May. A Bit Better For the year, EOG expects that the flush production plus the post-shut-in oil production that is higher than its “conservative estimates” will be up about 16,000 B/D, or 4% more than predicted. If this is the case on a large scale, it will answer those who warned that shut-ins could damage wells. Which is not to say these companies are not losing production as a result of shut-ins, which Rystad said peaked at 772,500 B/D (net) in June and is expected to drop to 74,400 B/D in August. “They would have done better if they had not shut them in, in terms of cumulative oil production;” said John Thompson, the president of the unconventional reservoir training firm Saga Wisdom. At the time those decisions were made, maximizing oil production was not the goal. Prices then were flirting with zero and oil demand was so low it was hard to find buyers or storage space. Since then prices recovered surprisingly fast, which has speeded the return of those shut-in wells. What is not surprising to Thompson are the well results. Based on a petroleum engineering career spent modeling thousands of unconventional wells, many of which had been shut in, these results are in line with what he would have expected. Despite the “hyperbole” from some financial observers, “what we are seeing here is completely representative of wells in these kinds of plays,” Thompson said. He said there are some risks. A rapid restart of a young well in an extremely-high-pressure formation, such as the Haynesville, might damage the fracture network, and the hardware in an extremely old well may suffer during a shutdown. In both cases the risks can be avoided by excluding the young and extremely old wells when planning shut-ins. The restart risk for high-pressure wells can be mitigated by choking production. Maintaining older wells can reduce the risks of their being compromised because their low production limits the potential loss. Source: EOG Resources So far, restart data are thin. The latest production data are from June. And other than EOG, companies are saying little about their production restart volumes. Still, Thompson said, “What EOG is showing is consistent with my observations in 16 years of looking at shale wells.” When a well is shut in, gas continues to flow into the well, pushing up the bottomhole pressure. When the well is reopening, this reenergizes production. Also, as the pressure level rises, gas begins going back into solution in the oil. When the well is re-opened, the bottomhole pressure drops and gas coming out of solution helps drive oil out, decreasing the gas/oil ratio for a time. This year’s mass shut-ins offer researchers a chance to look at how a production break affects a wide range of unconventional wells. Equipped with data on several wells, Hassan Dehghanpour, a professor at the University of Alberta, said he is working on an SPE paper analyzing what is going on at the reservoir scale which may offer insights on whether low-pressure gas injections could enhance production. While researchers look for ways to eke out more oil from these fast-declining wells, high-volume drilling is still the only way to sustain production. Wells that remained in production “are now producing significantly less [depending on their age] than what they produced in March,” Akulinitseva said. As a result of the drop in drilling, shut-ins, and natural declines, she said US oil production will decline from 12.8 million B/D in the first quarter to 11.2 million B/D in the fourth quarter of 2020. https://pubs.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=7491

Here's one peer reviewed source Obvious trend, but doesn't show last 10 years so just extrapolate

Let's see, @ronwagn quotes a speech given in public by Pompeo, but Yoshi tries to smear the newspaper that Published the speech? How stupid would a person have to be to listen to anything Yoshi says. He must be so desperate now. The wumaodang checks running late? Your country is falling to pieces and here you are trying to spread easily disproven lies. Frank just give up already, everyone is onto you.

I would never buy a Tesla, don't like the dash. Much prefer a fast "golf buggy", you know, "Keep it Simple Stupid". Would get a second-hand Nissan Leaf if the batteries were any good. However, Musk has stated that he will share battery tech with other manufacturers soon, on the basis that this will help reduce emissions faster. I think he sees Tesla as becoming the Intel of batteries but I reckon the Europeans will catch up fast. I will probably end up with some kind of Hybrid, but don't do enough driving to make the switch just yet, and Australia has been very slow to install fast-chargers. However, I have already decided that my next vehicle will be either hybrid or fully-electric. Depends on who wins our next election and what policies they pursue. I might even vote Labour for the first time in decades if my conservative govt won't support the shift to EV's. I think "free markets" are for dummies. They have no long-term strategic vision, and market failures are all too common. Electricity prices have tripled in Australia since the utilities were privatized, and like California, they have cut back on tree-clearing and repair teams. Takes forever to get your power re-connected every time there is a severe storm. Almost time to go off the grid, or at least get a hybrid inverter and a battery. If the govt were to subsidize batteries, would do it tomorrow. Till then, I am impatiently waiting for battery prices to fall by half

IMHO,it seems they are pushing central block-chain currency earlier despite of major risks as well for these purposes (which helps them to have full control of factions) 1 Don't need to afraid of people withdraw money from bank that will make the bank collapse. 2 Traceable source for money, harder to bribe, hard to avoid taxes, hard to run away with money and somewhat can hold people money as hostages or to destroy opposite faction economically. 3 Hide the crazy money printing. Some people may have error when use money which they think they have to do big transactions. 4 Easier to manipulate the exchanges. But at the end of day, the most important thing for a full China is whether Xing can control majority of the military support or not, even he cannot tell. If the "conspiracy" theory is true about China, then even Trump loses the election seems couldn't stop China from the final showdown between factions but will buy Xi more time to prepare, as long as possible. It is too big to imagine but then nothing last forever. They go the furthest so far and it has been very impressive they can keep it for that long given a big country with many time divided. North Korea is much easier to manage. Hopefully VN can open up then, kind of impossible with CPP still on power. But it is still too good to be true.

Chinese are already gearing up for food rationing (Lian pao), and their commercials on TV say things like, "It is good for you to feel hungry". Their pork and chicken industries are dead and dying right now, and their rice paddies are destroyed. Xi is in a world of hurt. But yeah, Trump bad so let's ignore everything else going on in the world, until the dims figure out how to blame Trump for what China did to itself.

Her performance as US Ambassador to the UN was outstanding.

It isn't the fire liability, it is the large overhang of debt incurred by installing solar etc. with roughly 10X the cost per kWh nominal capacity vs. CCGT. Much worse than that on their earlier efforts. It is because they were over-leveraged that they fill into bankruptcy from the fire liabilities. Even after reorganization in bankruptcy, they pay a higher rate than other utilities.

There are times I really cannot believe how you arrive at such statements. BLM&LGBT are not political concepts...Really you actually can own That? Yes Make America Great Again is not only a political ideology but a well founded human experience. No nation on this earth, no human of right mind does not wish to be the finest they can be. It seems you have great reservations in regards to MAGA. You reside in another country that has benefited greatly due to American generosity...could that be the nature of your deep resentment?

Looking fwd drones may be an alternative to manned deliveries. Not an option in the past.

Ironically the plethora of junk mail provides the income to keep a national post service going.

Well said there is some foundation to China's R&D...It would seem there hard work has paid huge dividends...somewhere north of say 400 billion a yr..Outstanding! https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/23/technology/china-us-trump-tariffs-ip-theft/index.html#:~:text=So just how much damage,billion and %24600 billion annually."

When was Kashmir, Nepal, Tibet or Bhutan ever part of China historically? Or were they ‘invaded and reduced to possession’ by China? Effectively making the inhabitants ‘slaves of the Chinese’, as per Yoshi’s comment earlier about Indian’s being slaves of the British.

This whole thread speaks to a marriage made in hell, Looney liberal California, a hobbled and broken utility company...and of course Mr. Musk who knock's down 9 billion in one day....Truly a Cinderella story..

Synthesis of agricultural land system change in China over the past 40 years

Indeed. Like the Dems in USA, the Labour Party here in Australia lacks upcoming talent. However, Jay is right about the anarcho-capitalists on the other side. Economic ideology has become far too extreme and polarised in both directions IMHO.

China could be extremely busy with the flood......... whichever candidate sends in the right number of water pumps might win the race......... Sometimes, we do not do the obvious ..........

It is already no 2 their births stats are overstated by at least 10 million cumulatively since 2013. They have been working on a drive to move people to vegetable source proteins in order to reduce their grain imports as part of the preparation to close up China again. There are no takers, meats are as popular as ever and people pay what they have to in order to get it. E.g. pork shoulder meat retailing at $7-$9/kg depending on city vs. source wholesale cost in the US of $2/kg. The 40% loss of arable high productivity river delta land to construction has cut into China's food production capacity. IIRC, 29% of what was useful agricultural groundwater has been taken offline because of various industrial and agricultural runoff contaminants. Those sources need to be purified via RO systems to make the water useful for food irrigation once more. Not a happy circumstance. Despite this steady cumulative damage, Ag. output has not fallen, because labor and chemical applications have increased, thus farm incomes are up at a faster rated than GDP for the decade, while manufacturing incomes are growing at about 1/2 of the rate of GDP growth. But output is flat since 2014. Forgot to add that storing large stockpiles of port means a large forex expense as China is at 50% of normal pork production for a second year now. They need to export more and lose less money to travel and education abroad. CV19 cut down their capital leakage and shut down travel and education expense. But the damage to exports from shut down markets is a bigger problem. So they are in no position to buy the pork they need. And in the priorities of what to buy with available forex, oil and copper are higher up on the list. As survival of their people is less of a concern than reaching strategic and economic goals for infrastructure etc.

I am still thinking about how to best answer your previous post, it does get complex and neither i nor anyone else has it all figured out, it is more of a process that adjusts to new information over time. but I do want to say this again, you have a popgun and gov't has long range precision weapons directed by artificial intelligence. Your 2nd A right is only as good as the gov't or corporations willingness to step back from blood shed. If they decide to shed blood it will be you doing the bleeding , not them. That is what makes the 2nd A a joke in today's world. It is just a blanket to keep you safe from the imaginary boogeyman. The real boogey man will use your blanket for targeting purpose. The command to the AI will be something like "Fly around and if you see someone with a gun, kill them." Just sayin'

Jay, again, denial. As has been pointed out many times. The cost of the fuel is, in fact, only a small part of the overall cost of running a plant and gas plants can produce power any time.. sunshine comes and goes as it please.. time to understand the difference and adjust your world view. Leave it with you..

That is why we have a Second Amendment.

IMO the 50/50 split is unworkable and leads to untenable government control. The USA is getting frighteningly close to that when you consider all the levels in our governmental bodies and add all the other bureaucracies and gigantic corporations we deal with.

Glad to, it is basically what we have today. We have a bubble of regulation inside of which is a free market. The market itself does not have perfect information like AC's believe. We can arrive at information through scientific research that is not properly costed in the market, aka externalities. With this we can set goals and then support independent market decisions as to how best to achieve those goals. The huge difference with communism and fascism etc. is that those systems try to full solve the problem on paper and give mandates about how to reach it. In the hybrid system, gov't provides goals and private enterprise figures out how to achieve them.

only under government regulation that would not exist in a laissez faire economic system

Their goal is to make the most money. That is usually achieved by having slightly unreliable electricity. This is because 80% of the cost is in the last 20% of the reliability cost.

@ronwagn I know you don't know this but Anarcho Capitalists don't believe in democracy. And they are the ultimate expression of your economic theory.

Classical China Partner trap. ARM is too important for China. I guess it is too late for Tesla as well but its value its value is too bubble IMHO. SpaceX is more important.

Not for long While utility-scale solar development has been less compared to wind development in the ERCOT region, it is beginning to gain traction. Today there is nearly 1,500 MW of installed utility-scale solar capacity in ERCOT, out of nearly 80,000 MW of installed capacity. As of December 2018, more than 40,000 MW of utility-scale solar capacity was under study in the ERCOT region. This is slightly higher than the amount of wind capacity under study during the same time period. While it is unlikely all of these projects will get built, the recent uptick in solar interconnection requests may be due to declining technology costs and significant solar opportunities in West Texas. Based on the latest information from resource owners, an additional 4,300 MW of the more than 40,000 MW under study have signed interconnection agreements and may be in-service by the end of 2020. http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/164134/Solar_One_Pager_FINAL.pdf and it will be backed up by batteries. http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/194823/ERCOT_Overview_of_Existing_and_Planned_Batteries_12-04-19.pptx

I came across this article, apparently not only auto manufacturers are being taken over by the CCP. All tech companies better take notice the IT wars have begun for real. I wonder if Elon Musk is paying attention. https://www.businessinsider.com/arm-conflict-china-complicates-acquisition-prospects-2020-8

HaHa, I was top of the class, I just decided to test it instead of following the dogma.

My thesis advisor in grad school was David D. Friedman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_D._Friedman, often referred to as the head of the Utilitarian school of Anarcho Capitalism. I spent years trying to make his models scale, they don't.

Lol, you fall on your head? I mustered arguments and documented same. That's better than you have shown here. Which part of quoting from multiple popes to refute your specious claim that the Catholics supported slavery did you not understand? See this is how argumentation works, you make an unsupported claim and I refute it with documentation, hence destroying your argument. That's ad hominem to you? Better peruse a dictionary

You can have a great roof over your head and the government can tax you out from under it.

He is likely to be announcing the achievement of $100kwh batteries. The industry in general is scheduled to reach that level in Q4 2021, and Tesla is a year ahead on the cost curve.

Slavery, as an institution in the United States, could only have existed from when the Treaty of Paris was signed until the Emancipation Proclamation was signed by Lincoln, 1783-1862.

One can always ask www.history.com Outsiders may not understand or care about when the Declaration of Independence was signed. THIS DAY IN HISTORY (excerpt) On August 20, 1619, “20 and odd” Angolans, kidnapped by the Portuguese, arrive in the British colony of Virginia and are then bought by English colonists. The arrival of the enslaved Africans in the New World marks a beginning of two and a half centuries of slavery in North America.

See my posts above. Multiple popes condemned slavery in the strongest terms. What @Yoshiro Kamamurasaid was patently untrue. Not sure what CCP training camp he got that nugget from, but it's historically and hysterically inaccurate. I was trained by Jesuits, we learned this all in school. Source for my quotes above

As usual, placing present day values and morals on events which happened centuries ago is an exercise in ignorance. Furthermore, there are two schools of thought in the Christian arena; Catholic and Protestant. To claim that the actions of the Pope is representative of Christians, as a whole, is inaccurate.

It's really rich that a CCP operative like @Yoshiro Kamamura lectures Americans about slavery. Let's compare and contrast to the ongoing slavery in China shall we? Economic slavery, where poor rural workers from outlying districts come to the big cities, to be treated like virtual illegal immigrants in their own country! Without the proper papers, they are subject to the whims of the police and their employers. They're not allowed to own property in the "host" cities so are perpetually relegated to second hand citizen status. They can be arrested at any time for real or imaginary crimes, which leads to political slavery, see next paragraph. But then there's the real slavery, where political prisoners such as the Uyghurs and Their forced labor across China as part of a "reeducation plan". They aren't paid, they are fed poorly, clothed maybe, and get to work for free to maybe avoid the beatings. But yeah, America bad for imagined crimes from 400 years ago, and let's not look at what China is doing TODAY!

Don’t worry, calmer, rational thinking will prevail on 3 November. Remember, you can’t lose your job, be ostrasized, or beat senseless by voting, in private, at the polling centers. This assumes Antifa will let you enter said polling centers. Probably need to exercise your Second Amendment right while voting...

That's okay, the whole world is laughing at Trumpists anyway. You have been brainwashed and you are unaware of it, so you just parrot what you hear in the group you indentify yourself with and think it is "normal". Meanwhile the Trump cult has long drifted beyond what is considered normal in any civilized society, but because you live in a social bubble, you have no way to tell, just like mentally ill people do not realize their illness.

While in principal I agree that use of productive agricultural land in temperate regions is counter productive consideration of the following points should be considered. Solar is so cheap now that its economic to deploy on east and west facing roofs and on walls. In urban areas water reservoirs can be used. This helps the reservoir as it reduces algal growth. Also be placing on a reservoir output is increased significantly as the panels can be easily rotated to follow the sun and the cooling effect increases panel efficiency. On the same reservoirs the buffer zones which can't be used for crops / grazing can also be used Agricultural land in many countries is exhausted. Deployment of solar panels are a productive way of letting the land fallow while it recovers. In hot climates: Deployment of solar panels will actually increase plant growth as it protects the plants from the midday sun Deserts and semi deserts produce very little vegetation anyway. RE Waste Older panels are not waste after 15 years. They get redeployed and get another 30-40 years life. Ebay is awash with second life solar panels from solar farms that have been up powered. I have 4 sitting on my roof on the East and west faces (along with the 2 I purchased in 2008) currently producing around 700W.