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This is why everyone needs to be very cautious, we all know what happened next.

Starsky, better quit smoking funny cigarettes. Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all remember Berlin 1948, Warsaw 1944. in Berlin 1953, Budapest 1956 and Prague 1968 and the governments they lived under. Moscow is perilously close to to receiving the Tokyo 1941 treatment. Ukraine does not pose any threat to German, Polish, Hungaria; Comrade Putin does. n, Czech, Romanian, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Finnish, Swedish or Norwegian interests. My father was born in Torun in 1926,, drafted as a German Pole in 1943(grandfather was an Oberst in WWI) and captured by the US in Italy in 1944 and stayed in the US as a displaced person in 1945. So I have a very clear idea what Germany and Poland think about who is responsible from relatives living in each. They don't want an other Rheinland-1936, Austria 1938 or Munich 1938. Second Germany has now sent war supplies to Ukraine, and the US has cleared the way to freeze every bank account any Russian has world wide including you three loud mouths. this is just like what happened to Japan in 1941. Putin has to move now, this week, or Rasputitsa( a Russian term for two seasons of the year, spring and autumn, when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult, owing to muddy conditions from rain or melting snow."Rasputitsa" also refers to road conditions during both periods.) comes in 2-3 weeks and hangs around until mid May. That means no bullets, beans, or toilet paper for the Russian Army . Same thing that happened to the Wehrmacht in October -November 1941.

I think a lot of it is feigned paranoia. Russia has its own nuclear force far beyond what Europe has and by far the most soldiers and armament plus excellent geographical positioning.

But lets seriously assume the final scenario is that the West imposes severe sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. Lets assume OPEN DOOR policy is a most important stategy of the West and its totally unacceptable for Russia in a case of Ukraine entering NATO. So as a result Russia, burdened with severe sanctions is forced to bet entirely on China. It becomes a vassal state of China, and thus the entire resources of Russian Siberia and the Russian Arctic begin to work for the needs of hungry China. Because of Ukraine, which probably many Americans are not able even to indicate too much on the map. Sounds good from a Western point of view against China? Well, probably not too much. So there will a an agreement over Ukraine. Let us start with the fact that further deepening of the disputes between Russia and the West does not serve either side of the conflict Well, we would have to assume that in the West and Russia, and more specifically in the USA and Russia, they are ruled by idiots themselves, who learned nothing during the Cold War confrontation. In fact, there is a point in this, but there are also smart people there. So it's hard to believe that when they pushed Russia into war with Ukraine, they didn't take into account what really happened as a result of Georgian War in 2008. In 2008, US credibility was hit very hard. It will not be otherwise this time, if Russia deploys its army in Ukraine and the US does military nothing but impose some sanctions, which will have no visible effect anyway. Thus, in this case, both the credibility of the USA and NATO would suffer severely and Russia would lose a lot economically and PR as a result of the sanctions. In addition, if all relations between Russia and Europe were severed, it would deprive Russia of an alternative and it would have to completely shift to cooperation with China, which would only strengthen China and surely is not in the interest of the West. And here we come to the heart of the matter. What if the US and the West and Russia are not concerned with further confrontation, and on the contrary, the West would like Moscow to be at least more neutral during the US-China economic war? In that case, you have to offer Putin something, which he really cares about, and at the same time make it appear that none of the parties has even stepped down from its principled position, even by a millimeter. The task is not generally easy, but if you think about it well, it is also not impossible to do. We must first, with mutual efforts, raise the stakes in the narrative of the conflict to the limit of total war between Russia and the West, put the world public in front of the vision of a nuclear catastrophe, and then announce to the world that the crisis was finally overcome at the last moment, but the world was saved, and the President of the USA and Russia they deserve a peaceful Nobel Prize. Of course all of this has to be done in mutual cooperation You need to force Ukrainian to implement Minsk Agreements by both Russia military show and western histeria. They need to announce they no longer wants to access NATO. Not something like appeasement strategy but they just dont want it anymore. And thats it. In Ukraine, there is quite a strong nationalist sentiment among some of the armed organizations, and Zelenski is afraid not to lose power by forcing agreements. It must be played in such a way that the Minsk Agreements come into force and the Maidan number III is not there. Putin's position is certainly much stronger than it was back in 2014. in 2014, the commodity supercycle ended. In 2021, it has only just begun and that is the difference. The last thing Biden's team now wants before the mid-term election is oil at $ 150.

So is that why they annexed Crimea ? Answer: no Personally I think NATO no longer serves it's original purpose. If Russia invaded the Balkans how many of NATO members would actually show up and fight. Answer: not many Biden met with German Chancellor today . Both spoke to press and said nothing. The usual platitudes. Like Crimea I think Russia wants another bite at the apple. Eastern Ukraine farmland and total control of the Azov Sea. The annexation will be easy. Like "another day at the beach"

Yes, natural gas is not a scarce commodity. The Green Parties have caused the current prices by leaving all fossil fuels out of their approved fuels. Finally the E.U. has woken up and is being realistic. The Greens in Germany have been the worst and now help control the factions in power there. Natural gas only needs financing and the freedom to build pipelines and any other needed infrastructure. There is plenty of it ready to gather including that being flared.

Looking back to 2014 tells us much Simple: Putin just takes oblast directly on the border from Luhansk to Kherson . . . . 1. They then own the Azov Sea 2. They control the Port of Mariupol (BIG ) 3. They control City of Kherson in oblast Kherson on the Dnieper River. A choke point. They control the 70% of Ukraine economy by controlling ports. 4. Russia has control of any new natural gas or oil resources in Azov Sea or off coast of the Southern oblasts. Could go for Odessa, but would be costly. End Result : Russia controls Ukraine. Eventually , gets a Russian friendly govt and Ukraine is in Russian sphere of influence and talk of joining NATO is dead. Of course all those corporations that wanted to do business in Ukraine, oil companies and defense contractors that contributed to the Biden campaign lose. Not the U.S. problem. U.S. Chamber of Commerce says over $50 Billion invested in Ukraine by U.S. Corporations. Ukraine can put all their troops a defense on the Eastern front then Russia will walk into Ukraine from Belarus, Russia Kursk oblast and Odessa. Separatist in Donetsk start to increase fight. Russia feels it "has to" help. Ukraine responses and finds itself in a three front war. The map below depicts potential oil/gas reserves around Crimea, Southern Ukraine, and Azov Sea. Why does Russia now want eastern and Southern Ukraine ? Natural Resources oil/gas. Productive Eastern Ukraine Farmland (10% of global grain exports) Quote from 2019 article , "Why Putin wants Crimea anyway" "But there’s another theory as to why Russia wants Crimea: oil and gas. Gaining control over this Ukrainian land would give Russia access to the hydrocarbons that could be found in maritime zones around Crimea. Large energy companies have expressed interest in helping Kyiv explore the area. It’s possible that the region contains a large amount of wealth, and some intriguing deposits have already been located in Russia’s Black Sea zone. Having control of the energy in the region would give Russia a monopoly on energy exports." THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN IN 2014. IF YOU DIDN'T KNOW BETTER YOU WOULD HAVE THOUGHT IT WAS WRITTEN LAST MONTH. Second article ,2014, "Why Putin wanted Crimea" with map detailing potential oil and gas reserves in Southern/Eastern Ukraine's Azov Sea and Black Sea. https://euobserver.com/opinion/123496 My guess is Putin wants the resources as in Oil , Gas , Agriculture in Eastern/Southern Ukraine and Azov Sea, deep water ports etc I don't buy the NATO Kabuki dance bull. 2014 MAP WHERE AT LEAST 50% OF THE OBLASTS WERE PRO RUSSIA AND PROTESTED OR FOUGHT. RUSSIA MIGHT ANNEX SOME OR ALL OF THESE AND LET A PUTIN INSTALLED PRO RUSSIA GOVERNMENT CONTROL THE REST. MAP https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.png

Two reports say Biden game plan to fight Russian moves into Ukraine is to fund a Ukraine insurgency. The only problem is the east and south are a majority pro Russia. It will never get off the ground in my opinion.

GM sold Opel to PSA, now Stellantis, in 2017.

So how many nukes do you think to kill Russia and the worlds economy? So if a couple dozen of Russians cities went to dust in the air. The damage wouldn’t reverberate around the world and it’s economy? I think your living in a fantasy. A small number of nukes by anyone brings death to us all. We’re all just little dominoes who can’t escape the carnage.

I give you a hint let those Spanish workers work under Russian conditions -20 to -60 C and I‘m sure their live expectancy will be much shorter.

They have signed AUKUS so they will have nuclear sub defence now, you dont need much more to be honest

Oil in place is fixed by geology, but the way people go about assessing that isn’t. There are many many places around the world producing very large amounts of oil from places that would not even have been investigated by people to determine the oil in place in 1982. The US did indeed produce some shale oil and gas in 1973 and earlier. This wasn’t stopped due to environmental concerns - it was stopped because the technology to develop them wasn’t up to the job. As soon as prices fell down from very high levels they weren’t profitable.

We shall send some war supplies to some criminals close to where you live. In 1941, Roosevelt only seized Japanese assets in US jurisdiction. Biden is no Roosevelt. Aren't you a specialist on Russian meteorology? May we invade the Ukraine using regular public roads, pretty please?

Dont like to rain on your parade, but a few points here. Firstly the 1970's was 50 years ago and many offshore and onshore discoveries have happened since then, ie for Norway Johan Sverdrup field and Johan Castberg field in the very recent past. Also technology has improved efficiencies meaning that previous fields that were uneconomical are now economical to develop. There is also this thing called "fracking" that wasn't around in the 1970's (or considered to be viable back then) which has massively affected oil reserves. There are now many companies globally that are recycling plastic waste and returning back to oil/fuel. One example below https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-43418391 There is plenty of oil out there for another 50 years at least IMHO

If (Rxxx) USA could have it's way, it would reconstitute the (Sxxxx) UK Empire which would include all the satellite countries.

the amurcun propaganda will never cease. Putin does not want Ukraine. The ethnic Russian majority in eastern Ukraine want to be part of Russia. Putin has said no to this request. Crimea was never ethnic Ukraine. Crimea was given to Ukraine for administrative control, in an action that violated Russian law and was never ratified by the Dumas. The ethnic Russian majority (ie 98%) voted by referendum to rejoin Russia. Crimea is democratically and legally returned to Russia, by the Crimea people themselves.

Well, religion is my most important concern. I am a perpetual optimist and rely on the Holy Spirit. I know that all things will work out well in the end and according to God's purpose. Still, I think that people need good, clean, abundant energy, fuel, electricity etc. to power their inventions and provide everyone with a decent standard of living. What I see, worldwide is fascism taking power in virtually every nation. It is the same as what the communists call communism or socialism. It is afraid of religion, aside from the Muslims who are often only adherents in name, not in reality. Religion is subjugated to the state and constitutions are ignored. I see America as at great risk of becoming just another failed state if we do not work as hard as we can to save her. My definition of fascism is crony capitalism plus statism. The state is preeminent but to varying degrees.

Why would I blame Demonrats? They are doing what they SAY they are going to do. Steal and destroy. Rhinos on the other hand SAY they are going to do something and instead do the opposite, lining their pockets. As for the rest... that is a religious issue. Politics flows from religion. Demonrats are just following their Atheist religion morals. You want things to change? Change peoples religion and hunt down and lambast all the openly perverted hypocrites. Otherwise, stop wasting your time. Its religion that is the problem, not politics.

Just wondering... Do you get paid to write these multiple treatises everyday? You must. No sane person has this much time on their hands.

The problem is the propane plus in the gas stream. casing head is very rich in these components . It is like a retrograde condensate reservoir like Whitney Canyon or Carter Creek in reverse. In the Permian Basin as the gas moves down the line, pressure drops cooling the gas stream. Starting with Heptane on down to propane , you cross the condensation point of the hydrocarbon and they fall out as a liquid. That liquid does not continue down stream , but collects in puddles before the next compressor station . This liquid increases the resistance to flow and reduces the cross sectional area for the flow of the line. That is why operators have to "pig" the lines. Something they did not do ahead of last year's event. Prior to cold weather. the casing head propane-heptane spread must be stripped from from the natural gas stream to create "dry gas about 1000-1010 btu/cubic foot. the heavy components do not work well with gas compressors. Another lowering of pipeline capacity. Using a processing plant to remove these very valuable hydrocarbons means you have to have storage or a pipeline for these gas/liquids. The Permian is short of all three:plants , storage and pipelines. It is not critical in warm weather(propane and butane stay barely gaseous), but trucking the excess in cold weather and roads closed stops transportation.

Yea, you know why? The RHINOS hold the RNC chair and jump as high as the bankers they are indebted to tell them. So, anyone who for instance, wants to run as a tea party member calling for a balanced budget and paying down the National Debt got ZERO funding. After all that was cutting into the bankers slush funds and ability to print money allowing the fat cat first mover position. Saw it multiple times with my own eyes. The result? Surprise surprise, they get voted out of office when their RHINOS run against them with a boat load of cash from the RNC or a democrat wins... If there should be ANY limit in campaign spending it should be by anyone out of STATE and from the RNC/DNC. Ron, inflation is caused by RNC/DNC jumping to banks demands and their own greed for pork by printing tons and tons and tons of fake money. They printed 40% of every USD in the last 2 years Ron. Of course there is going to be inflation... 40% inflation. We are just getting started on the inflation as inflation will track perfectly with printing of $$$ until NO ONE uses it and then it crashes into toilet paper or wallpaper status.

Russia is working closely with China on future trades, not using the USD; how the shit for brainless President thinks that he can stop Russians pipeline and replace it with LNG is a logistics nightmare! Granted, other LNG countries have offered support, but Germany is presently quite Fucked for Natural Gas other than Russia. Merkel was warned this day would come but pressed forward anyway! Germany is now and for the foreseeable future tied to Putin and his fucked up plans to rebuild the former USSR.

I'm only telling you what the excuses are - some of them are very good reasons and some of them are terrible, but they are all strongly held by powerful groups or people who will fight against the proposal. I don't have a solution.

You decry substandard comprehension? The body of your posting is that of a teenager having hormonal rage. Due plz take a timeout for reflection

I have no blinders. The problems are too numerous to deal with easily. It is a multiheaded hydra which forms new heads as soon as some are cut off. Trusts are a major problem. Banks, mutual funds, and insurance companies hold all the money. Wealthy people are more concerned about their friends and cronies and building their wealth than helping America. I totally agree with the Jefferson quote. We cannot let anything override or ignore our constitutional rights. Right now, our best bet is taking control of the Republican Party from the RINOS who have controlled it for as long as I can remember. There are a lot of Democrats and Republicans who are fed up with the government jerking their leashes. That is the point that I know can take the power to move things in the right way. Money gained while in office should count against them when citizens vote. The election laws are full of holes. Foreign money can leak into campaigns in many ways also. A lot of money changes hands in circuitous ways that are never discussed. A lot of laws are enforced against conservatives but not against liberals. Lots of things need to be fought and changed. Our biggest problem right now is that inflation is being used to destroy the middle class and to destroy America while subsidizing left wing groups in alliance with the Democrats.

One inch eastward was about East Germany territory not Eastern Europe as a whole. The US hasn't put any troops in former East German territory so no inch eastward was in fact followed. By the looks of the discussions there were many different takes and understandings by many people involved on all sides about what was discussed. Everyone seems to have a differing point of view which is why you sign written document or even make a binding treaty. The reason NATO expanded to East Europe was because countries located there wanted to be part of NATO. If those countries didn't consider Russia a repugnant entity there wouldn't have been any expansion. If Russia wants security then quit acting in ways that frighten the neighbors. I'd add lower the paranoia but Putin exists in a KGB reality of total paranoia.

Your assessment of reserves is exceedingly bad, and it’s the key source of potential error If you look at the OPEC reserves estimates from the 1970’s they are MUCH MUCH lower than current estimates. Then they suddenly went up in coordinated fashion in 1986. They have never gone up or down since then except for a few tiny adjustments. That implies either that for the last 35 years they have discovered exactly as much oil as they have produced in every country listed, or that the numbers are completely fabricated. I’ll let you decide which is more likely. This is a major subject for a thread of its own. edit: to get an idea of how bad OPEC reserve numbers are, they are probably off by ~ 500 billion bbls (actual numbers are less than official numbers) the US is an opposite case - it’s definitions of reserves is extremely limited - actual oil produced has exceeded reserves many times over. Since the 1930’s the amount of oil the US counts as reserves has never been over 50 billion bbls. And yet between now and then, it has produced about 250 billion bbls. This is partly due to discoveries, and partly because of the way reserves are legally defined in US law. Russian reserves are probably the closest to being realistic at least among major producers, since they include a reasonable estimate of proved and probable reserves (behind pipe, perforated and reasonably inferred, using a probabilistic method. US reserves are proved only, minimum volume, currently in production.

I'll disagree with you about the specific dates, because they depend on published reserve figures which are incredibly bad - they don't even all measure the same thing when compared between different countries, but the essence of your assessment is correct - the 'age of oil' won't last forever. Partly this is because there isn't an infinite amount of oil, and partly it's because alternatives like EV's ARE a practical replacement. IMHO humanity will switch over to EV's well considerably before all the oil is burned.

Quite true, trust me here I have been quite restrained in my responses....respectfully that is. Youth is wasted on the young takes on quite a bit of relevance as time burns.

It doesn’t take any research to know that if your fate relies on the US and Russia your stupid. Don’t take it so serious, it’s just an opinion. Some things look obvious and others don’t see at all. This is why we argue. The rich have always been mostly in power and they make weird shyt happen. It’s not all bad and who says the less rich could do any better. Anything other than the current………….is just speculation. You get that concept? Like ground troops in a modern war with 10’s of thousands of missiles with a range of over 1300 miles. Hehe, Putin ain’t so brilliant, …….unles he has a Stalin plan to just have them killed. Seems an obvious place not to have a war is where the ground troops are. Is that to much for your brain?

Notsonice to Tomasz: You working for Putin???? You sold yourself out??? ---- Commentary sympathetic to Russia in Poland is perhaps a minority position, but with at least two historical traditions. Nationalists in Konfederacja are open to realistic, positive-sum relationships with Russia, both for economic reasons and geo-political. Current government insists on fostering bad relations with Russia AND Germany, and sketchy relations with USA, geopolitically is more rational to have realistic requests and seek advantageous exchanges. Dmowski, one of the founders of Polish nationalistic ideology seeked Russia as an ally, so "tsarist" Russia of 21-st century is a natural ally as well. But you do not need to be a Confederate to have such view (Konfederacja has an amazing and sometimes amusing collection of ideas, e.g. restoration of monarchy). There is also a leftist tradition, but the trend is that it is fragmented into pieces that are Atlanticist and pieces that keep their mouth shut on geopolitics. Tomasz sticks to what is good for business in Poland. Concerning economic sacrifices for the sake of supporting democracy, the current government is not a good example. Advocating economically foolish sanctions and insults for Russia and Belarus while selling part of government owned company to this island of democracy in Middle East that is Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. (Domestically, PiS ruling in Poland tries to construct a police state, hopes are that it will botch it like many other things.) Mind you, journalists of Moscow Times, Rain you-tube channels and many others opponents of Kremlin live and work in Russia, and I NEVER heard about such situations in KSA. If Russia is a fascist dictatorship, it is an unusually mild one, while KSA is an absolute monarch on steroids (and Viagra).

By "investment rules" I think you mean the free market.

Aren't all of you equally ancient?

3 CSGs is better than one Russian carrier that sank in it's own drydock and caught on fire too.