WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[oilfutures + 39]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Sorry no time to look at oil or us. But as mentioned Oil is ranging, until the next move down, maybe later in the week, (at least how I see it), and the dow as mentioned on the way to making new highs. I won't be able to look at those two too much since I need to work on getting the programs working, and may have to rent some servers, since these programs could crash my workstations. Plus i need the servers to be up 24/7.

Let know if you need server capacity

[ATK + 355]

 

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

 

[ATK + 355]

Anyone here have a reason to be bullish? Slightly starting to doubt we will see a drop this week

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I will tell you the truth, i really really feel bad posting so much here, i really don't want to waste peoples time. You have to understand that my mind sometimes races a 1000/mph, and unfortunately if i have something i think may be useful to someone i say it, in this case write it. But just to be a pro. i really think i have over posted too much, and since oil is gonna range and move down say a couple of bucks say a bit more than 5 dollars in range mode, and then eventually it should slowly go back up, towards 80s, when I can predict, im not a prophet, wont ever be.

There is really nothing for me to come daily and say, it simply will be the same thing, and I think it is getting boring. Like I said i have been creating auto programs for a couple of pairs, and if i start talking about them, i can speak lexicons. But for sure this is not the place. And if i had enough time i could easily create one for oil, gold, and others. Bitcoin is not my thing since when it was 20k, it was  last year, i knew it was going to 1k, and am surprised by people going long daily and losing their shirts. Funny that a top new hedgie guy when it was 20k was gonna start a hedgefund and said it was going to 70k, sad.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

JJ, your insights on the oil market have been extremely helpful & educational for me. Thank You!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

you are certainly welcome, i really enjoy analyzing the charts,maybe a little bit too much, and maybe because when a couple of days later my analysis proves correct, I feel good that i was able help guide someone in the right direction. I mean i know when we hit the 50s, which i think will happen, there will be lots of anger and maybe despair that we could hit even lower, but i don't see that, to me it is as clear as the sky. And maybe that little bit of hope, may save someone of letting it all go, just before it moves back up. There is a saying it always darkest before the dawn. I should know i am up at 2 am. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just took a quick look at WTI. It should go above 66. But the up move will be very very weak, WTI is now standing on one wobbly leg. And it looks like WTI will be weak this week, and start another leg down, (sorry for the pun).

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/13/2018 at 4:57 PM, Jan van Eck said:

William, I suspect the answer to that is that Canada will simply get creative in ways to use that oil.  For example (and this is just one example) there are a number of old coal-fired thermal generating plants now dormant.  They can be converted to oil of various grades easily enough and simply fired up.  [They would in turn be displacing ruinously expensive wind power, which contracts I expect the Ford Administration to repudiate shortly]. The massive coal plant sitting down in Southern Ontario I think in or near Port Burwell (south of Tilsonburg) comes to mind, it is just sitting there mothballed.  They will convert the stuff into ethylene monomer and sell the monomer to the plastics industry.  They will force the oil now being imported from the US and from Kuwait out the door and shovel the domestic stuff in there, and part of the purchase price will be absorbed by a devalued Canadian dollar, which will probably sink further.  They will get creative, and I fully anticipate it will be done. I just don't see any other viable political way to handle the WCS.  They are politically locked in. Cheers.

I recall reading a few months back that at current prices of Oil / Coal / Gas  that Oil fired power stations are the energy industries equivalents of machines that turn gold into lead. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

I recall reading a few months back that at current prices of Oil / Coal / Gas  that Oil fired power stations are the energy industries equivalents of machines that turn gold into lead. 

So what?  Remember that where this is going is not a free market.  If Canada puts import quotas or duties on imported oil, and I predict they will eventually, then it will be Alberta Oil, price be damned.  Remember that the net-metering tie-in contracts that the [Liberal} Wynne Govt of Ontario signed with the solar and wind crowd were for 80 cents/kwh, that is a staggering number when hydro retails for 5 cents in Quebec.  Now that Wynne is Out and the Conservatives under Ford are In, and Ford cancels those contracts by repudiation as ruinous  (and in Canada he can do that legally, he just issues an Order of Repudiation), then the new source of electricity will be those antique and mothballed power generators, which I predict will get converted to heavy oil from Alberta.  Nothing else makes any sense.

Hey, could be wrong.  It is just my hunch. In all candor, I just don't see it going any other way.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Well here is the news some of us have been predicting would happen:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-spr/update-2-us-offers-11-mln-barrels-of-oil-for-sale-from-strategic-reserve-idUSL2N1VB0W9

Will this be the catalyst for the next drop in oil prices?

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well here is the news some of us have been predicting would happen:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-spr/update-2-us-offers-11-mln-barrels-of-oil-for-sale-from-strategic-reserve-idUSL2N1VB0W9

Will this be the catalyst for the next drop in oil prices?

nope. just business as usual. it may be shock for a day but doubt the effect will last

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Rodent said:

nope. just business as usual. it may be shock for a day but doubt the effect will last

I think that depends to some degree on Mr. Trump.  Some say he loves a distraction and at some point, soon, he will have to brag about opening the SPR, and then repeating and tweeting, repeating and tweeting.  "What investigation?  Fake news!  Did you see that I opened the SPR?  That's real news, but nobody will report it.  Millions of American workers will get jobs and be able to take vacations because of that.  But will the MSM report it?  No! (Pouts for effect)."

Seriously, though, (and I'm speaking for William here, since he is not here to do it) you can't fit 10 gallons of oil in a 5 gallon bucket.  I.e. if supply was already too much, making the SPR "available" is specifically only for the headlines.

I mentioned elsewhere that I believe Trump's real/only purpose here is to lower the price of gas, at the pump, for his base going into mid-terms.  Interestingly, in the last 2 or 3 days it has been a headline that cheaper oil prices are not translating to cheaper prices at the pump.  What will the POTUS do?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

This is very scary, I think someone very large must be reading my posts. I guess I am flatterd. WTI went above  66 by 1 cent. By 1 cent and quickly dove down. Wow, had it not gone 1 cent above 66, I would have been wrong in saying that WTI would first go above 66 before making it's leg down.

Anyways, speaking of legs, (very important to know how to segway, even if you are not a comedian), Anyways as you can see the leg down looks bad now, looks like WTI got double knee and hop replacement at the same time. Ladies and Gentlemen get ready to see 63, and my target from eons ago of 62.5, once that target hits, dead cat bounce, song and dance, smoke and mirrors, and then further knee and  joint therapy downtown. Someone please get WTI a wheel chair, and a very strong drink, to knock out the pain.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

This is very scary, I think someone very large must be reading my posts. I guess I am flatterd. WTI went above  66 by 1 cent. By 1 cent and quickly dove down. Wow, had it not gone 1 cent above 66, I would have been wrong in saying that WTI would first go above 66 before making it's leg down.

Anyways, speaking of legs, (very important to know how to segway, even if you are not a comedian), Anyways as you can see the leg down looks bad now, looks like WTI got double knee and hop replacement at the same time. Ladies and Gentlemen get ready to see 63, and my target from eons ago of 62.5, once that target hits, dead cat bounce, song and dance, smoke and mirrors, and then further knee and  joint therapy downtown. Someone please get WTI a wheel chair, and a very strong drink, to knock out the pain.

66.01 gave me a headache.  Good call, though.  I will visit WTI in rehab down in the basement.  😎

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now let's take a look at big Dow Jones. I guess the DOW is  at 25,805 is a new high right now, so of this post. Sorry I really don't watch the stock market, just to much noise, actually I don't watch any markets, not even watch the news. But it does look like a drop is around the corner. Now please I will never be the one to predict the big crash, I am not the matrix. But from my humble opinion the Dow Jones and the SPX are about ready for some fall. Here let me be a hero, I see some kind of fall happening on the dow, spx nasdag, right after the dow hits 26010. Let me put that in caps - 26010, forgot their is no caps for numbers. Oh well, there you have it. You can take that to the bank, or should I say out of the bank. Sorry my jokes sometimes need some work, will have to speak to my writer.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dan I want to tell you one thing, ok? Dan u de man, wink.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

25 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan I want to tell you one thing, ok? Dan u de man, wink.

Yeah, right.  It would be nice to win once in a while!

For the Dow, that's only @200 points up from now.  I was thinking we'd rally all the way up to 28,850 or so, purely basing it on herd mentality.  I mean, lead them until they truly BELIEVE we are going to 30k, and then pull the plug, with a few up days of 500 or more to keep the herd going in the "right" direction.  Just speaking out loud.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dan remember I did not say we have the big crash here, only a pause, a small break. Where the exact top will be, this is purely speculation. Is it at 29996? What a weird number, but we will see.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan remember I did not say we have the big crash here, only a pause, a small break. Where the exact top will be, this is purely speculation. Is it at 29996? What a weird number, but we will see.

True, you did indeed.  IF the number ends up being 29996, you had better get ready to run a hedge fund or two!  MSNBC and whatever banks are left after the crash will want you on TV.  Just remember to read the script and keep the truth to yourself.  LOL!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dan If i ever run a hedge fund it would be in currencies. To predict when Tesla will fall, or that FB will mess up one day, is guessing. Why? There is no hedge fund of any means that speculate on currencies, why? The risk. The trade derivatives or some bond products. However the currencies, indeed, it is  like taking a glowing hot steel sword and cutting through butter. To catch big moves in currencies, I think should be a crime, due to how easy it is. you can do just 3 trades in currencies a year, big ones, and be up 15% with like no margin. Mano a mano. With margin sky is the limit. All you need, every year, without a doubt there is always big big setups in currencies, by big I mean moves that are at least 1000 points, sometimes 2000 points, however most are blinded until way after the fact. A 1000 point move on 1 contract no margin is 10%. This year the easiest shorts where on the GBPUSD and the EURUSD, 1 already made a 2000 point move in just a couple of month, thats a 20% gain on just 1 contract of 100k which you can buy with margin for 10k or 5k. So in a 5k margin requirement trade that amounts to a 400% gain. People don't realize this but currencies is being in dotcom every year. It is easy, straight forward, not complex, it's a (wow this is it, you mean no challenge, you guys won't even try to fool me?). Let me rephrase currency is hard for most, in most cases when I am long, It is hard for me to find one trader who is long too, but I find currencies, as much as I respect the market a big joke. Having said that I would advise any trader never to try to even trade currencies., I see people with so much experience with so many computer screens with all the tools in the world, with esignal packages that  can cost $1k a month,  with so many analysts with so much ivy league education, get it wrong, again and again it never stops.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan If i ever run a hedge fund it would be in currencies. To predict when Tesla will fall, or that FB will mess up one day, is guessing. Why? There is no hedge fund of any means that speculate on currencies, why? The risk. The trade derivatives or some bond products. However the currencies, indeed, it is  like taking a glowing hot steel sword and cutting through butter. To catch big moves in currencies, I think should be a crime, due to how easy it is. you can do just 3 trades in currencies a year, big ones, and be up 15% with like no margin. Mano a mano. With margin sky is the limit. All you need, every year, without a doubt there is always big big setups in currencies, by big I mean moves that are at least 1000 points, sometimes 2000 points, however most are blinded until way after the fact. A 1000 point move on 1 contract no margin is 10%. This year the easiest shorts where on the GBPUSD and the EURUSD, 1 already made a 2000 point move in just a couple of month, thats a 20% gain on just 1 contract of 100k which you can buy with margin for 10k or 5k. So in a 5k margin requirement trade that amounts to a 400% gain. People don't realize this but currencies is being in dotcom every year. It is easy, straight forward, not complex, it's a (wow this is it, you mean no challenge, you guys won't even try to fool me?). Let me rephrase currency is hard for most, in most cases when I am long, It is hard for me to find one trader who is long too, but I find currencies, as much as I respect the market a big joke. Having said that I would advise any trader never to try to even trade currencies., I see people with so much experience with so many computer screens with all the tools in the world, with esignal packages that  can cost $1k a month,  with so many analysts with so much ivy league education, get it wrong, again and again it never stops.

Wish I could see what you see.  (what else can one say to that?)

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

An easy way to make money in the stock market. There is a certain person, who comes on tv a lot, I pick it up on YouTube, he looks very smart, always has a bowtie, sounds like a genius. (sounds like), he used to be a partner of the greatest trader ever, that greatest trader ever said this guy with the bow tie, is the worst trader. Whenever he says to go short, go long. If he says buy gold, then short gold, If he says buy bit coin at 20k then short it. If he says the market is gonna crash go long. i think though one day one of his guesses will hit, just like a broken clock is right twice a day.

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

So what?  Remember that where this is going is not a free market.  If Canada puts import quotas or duties on imported oil, and I predict they will eventually, then it will be Alberta Oil, price be damned.  Remember that the net-metering tie-in contracts that the [Liberal} Wynne Govt of Ontario signed with the solar and wind crowd were for 80 cents/kwh, that is a staggering number when hydro retails for 5 cents in Quebec.  Now that Wynne is Out and the Conservatives under Ford are In, and Ford cancels those contracts by repudiation as ruinous  (and in Canada he can do that legally, he just issues an Order of Repudiation), then the new source of electricity will be those antique and mothballed power generators, which I predict will get converted to heavy oil from Alberta.  Nothing else makes any sense.

Hey, could be wrong.  It is just my hunch. In all candor, I just don't see it going any other way.

Have you thought about applying to Maduro about being his new Finance / Energy Minister?

Seriously look at the numbers.

Whats the energy content of a barrel of oil - 6 GJ?  This is roughly comparable with the same volume of heavy fuel Oil

So even if you could put raw crude through your oil fired station running at 38-40% efficiency at $67.50 a barrel your fuel costs alone are 10.3 c per kwh. Factor in transport costs of getting oil to the station, transmission charges of for electricity, labour etc and you will be nearer 20c /kwh

At 5 cents a unit they will need to sell Tar Sand Oil at about $15 a barrel. They couldnt even get it out the ground for that money.

I bet given the age of those plants they have nothing in the way of pollution control to capture all that lovely Sulphur - that is just a treat for all your NE Lakes and sugar maples.

Environmental considerations aside - as I said its a Machine that turns Gold into lead.  

 

According to this Anti Wind website Ontario pays 11-13.5c /kwh for wind (not 80)

http://www.windontario.ca/

 

[ATK + 355]

7 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well here is the news some of us have been predicting would happen:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-oil-spr/update-2-us-offers-11-mln-barrels-of-oil-for-sale-from-strategic-reserve-idUSL2N1VB0W9

Will this be the catalyst for the next drop in oil prices?

What is crazy to me is how often "Iranian sanctions" get mentioned in the media when discussing any price rise, but stuff like this that is happening much sooner just gets a shrug. Really starting to see people trading oil more off speculation than actual supply and demand fundementals. I can't tell you how many headlines said the stock supply was a "surprise" last week when, if you really did some research ,knew there would be some kind of supply increase ( China not importing any US crude since July, rig count at all time high, strong dollar, etc.).

Edited August 21, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, ATK said:

What is crazy to me is how often "Iranian sanctions" get mentioned in the media when discussing any price rise, but stuff like this that is happening much sooner just gets a shrug. Really starting to see people trading oil more of speculation than actual supply and demand fundementals. I can't tell you how many headlines said the stock supply was a "surprise" when if you really did some research knew there would be some kind of supply increase ( China not importing and US crude since July, rig count at all time high, strong dollar, etc.).

Right on all accounts.  I wish William was responding to posts because he has the best explanations about this phenom.  Basically, he says, and most agree, oil pricing is set by speculators, period.  Most of the news I read is exactly the opposite of what real world data would suggest, at least when it comes to the trading world.